Chapter 78: 077 Cruel Reality
Rome wasn't built in a day, and the difficult situation of running backs in the League also wasn't caused overnight, but rather by various contributing factors.
Firstly, after top running backs deliver a top-season performance, securing a lucrative contract becomes increasingly challenging.
Teams worry that running backs can't sustain top performances and also believe their contribution to the offense is limited. Therefore, while quarterbacks, wide receivers, and offensive line players keep landing record-breaking contracts, star running backs are often left "begging for crumbs."
It's hard to renew contracts, especially long-term or high-value ones.
Secondly, the draft prospects for rookie running backs are getting worse.
The NFL has strict regulations for rookie contracts, specifying clear-cut minimum wages for each round and each draft position, which means teams must consider cost-effectiveness—whether to choose running backs or players at other positions with the same amount of money.
Instead of selecting running backs in the first three rounds, professional leagues have gradually started to favor choosing running backs in the sixth or seventh rounds, or even from undrafted rookies—as if bargain hunting.
A real value for money, since running backs are treated just as "draft animals."
What if the rookie running backs aren't skilled enough?
No worries, after all, it's just a sixth or seventh-round pick; it's cheap, no harm in wasting, and after being discarded, it's always easy to pick up some blue-collar backups.
As a matter of fact, the current League still lacks excellent running backs or top running backs. Many teams struggle with insufficient running back capabilities, which hampers their offensive performance, but due to cost-effectiveness and salary cap issues, team managers often refuse to admit this and are even more reluctant to spend big money on top running backs.
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They would rather focus on other positions in the offensive group to change the situation than be seen as the sucker who gives a top contract to a top running back.
Naturally, the prospects of running backs at the draft are getting dimmer, and as time progresses, there seem to be no signs of improvement.
The same is true now.
"Crimson Tide Storm vs. Trojans" ended, and Li Wei made a strong impression, with team managers' eyes lighting up at the data. If this had been a quarterback, or perhaps a wide receiver or a tight end, that would have been considered a treasure trove, attracting attention even from teams that don't need players at those positions.
However, taking a closer look, realizing it's a running back, their enthusiasm quickly waned; besides, this running back had only risen to prominence in one single game, providing limited reference value. It wasn't even necessary to keep watching him—more than half of the team managers had already closed their eyes and threw his resume straight into the trash.
Reality is just that cruel.
It's the same with the NFL, as it is with the NCAA.
Strictly speaking, the NCAA is slightly better.
Since colleges don't need to consider salary caps or cost-effectiveness, the value of running backs often receives more attention. There are still many traditional colleges insisting on ground offenses like the Crimson Tide Storm, and they still manage to climb to the top and win championships.
Take one statistic for instance: the Heisman Trophy.
As the highest award in college football, the Heisman Trophy is given to the player with the most outstanding performance of the season. Although quarterbacks are undoubtedly the stars of football, out of the sixteen times the Heisman has been awarded since the millennium, thirteen have gone to quarterbacks and the other three to running backs.
Looking at the long stretch of history up to 2023, running backs, including halfbacks and fullbacks, hold a dominant position with forty-six winners, with quarterbacks closely following with thirty-nine winners.
In the NFL, however, it's a different story.
Up to 2016, running backs were the second most common position chosen for the first overall draft pick, a total of twenty-three times; just behind quarterbacks, who have been selected first twenty-nine times.
But the reality is that the last time a running back was selected with the first overall pick in the first round was way back in 1995.
And it's not just the first overall pick; even looking at first-round picks as a whole shows the severity of the situation.
In the millennium era, the number of running backs selected in the first round in 2000, 2001, and 2002 were five, three, and three respectively.
Coming to the present, in the past three years, the number of running backs selected in the first round was one, zero, and two respectively.
The decline in numbers is obvious.
Just this April, at the latest draft party, Derrick Henry of the Crimson Tide Storm, the new Heisman Trophy winner celebrated by fans as "Emperor Henry," a dominant running back, was not selected until the second round, forty-fifth overall by the Tennessee Titans, and didn't even make it into the first round.
This is the reality.
But does that mean teams don't need running backs?
No, absolutely not.
In fact, the opposite is true; there are many teams that lack quality running backs, and there are several coaches who appreciate them.
Take, for example, the Carolina Panthers.
This is a strong team, a very, very good team that became a major league competitor ever since they picked Cam Newton, a quarterback from the University of Alabama at Auburn in 2011 with their first overall pick. Since the 2012 season, they have made it to the playoffs four consecutive times, their formidable performance consistently on display.
Last season they had an outstanding record of fifteen wins to one loss, entered the playoffs as the number one seed, and charged all the way to the Super Bowl; unfortunately, they performed poorly on the Super Bowl stage and were completely dominated by Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos, sadly missing out on the championship.
Now, under the leadership of Coach Ron Rivera, the Carolina Panthers are still seen as strong contenders this coming season.
But Rivera knows his own issues, he is worried about the condition of quarterback Cam Newton.
Newton is a typical mobile quarterback, ranked alongside Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick as one of the new generation's top four mobile quarterbacks. Last season, Newton clinched the regular season MVP award and topped the NFL's Top 100 Players list for the first time, perfectly riding the crest of success.
So, what is Rivera worried about?
Injuries.
New generation mobile quarterbacks, having the ability to pass and run, pose a dual threat, but just like running backs, mobile quarterbacks need to carry the ball themselves, which means collisions, confrontations, and a high risk of injuries.
Look at Griffin, who had suffered four severe injuries over the past three seasons. The 2011 Offensive Rookie of the Year has completely turned into a spent force, and last year he was entirely ruled out for the season.
Back in the day, the Washington Redskins (renamed Washington Commanders in 2022) paid a hefty price of three first-round picks and one second-round pick to secure Griffin as the second overall pick, but this offseason they offloaded him to the Cleveland Browns like a clearance sale.
Rivera doesn't want to see this happen; after all, he believes a quarterback's job should be passing, while running should be left to the running backs.
Rivera thinks the team needs an excellent running back to support Newton, however… the team's General Manager David Gettleman disagrees.
This year at the draft, Gettleman completely ignored Rivera's request; he didn't pick a running back for the team by the end of the draft, which infuriated Rivera; this on top of having just renewed Newton's contract last year, a five-year deal worth $103.8 million US dollars, leaving no salary cap room to pick up players from the free market.
Thus.
Rivera's plans had to be shelved.
When Rivera saw Li Wei, his mind became active once again.