Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 526: A Big Gamble

In the Milan Palace, the House of Wittelsbach was engaged in a final discussion about whether to abandon the Greek throne.

This issue was actually easy to resolve. Unlike in the original timeline where Otto I was deposed, this time Otto I had died of natural causes, and many of the high-ranking officials in the Greek government were still those Otto I had brought over from Bavaria.

With Austrian support, these people still held significant power. House Wittelsbach’s foundation in Greece remained intact, and any heir they sent could stabilize the situation in the shortest time possible.

This was also why Franz was inclined to support the Wittelsbachs. If a foreign king were to take the throne, it would be difficult to control Greece.

Although Otto I could not be considered a successful king, he was no fool either. Despite Greece’s defeat in the Near East War, the king emerged as the victor.

Using the might of the Anglo-French-Ottoman alliance, Otto I successfully eliminated dissent. Even now, the radical groups in Greece have not regained their strength.

The few nobles and capitalists left in Greece were smart enough to limit their ambitions to mere slogans. Anyone who still believed in “rebuilding Rome” was certainly a fool.

In the original timeline, after a series of harsh realities, Greece’s strategic goals had been significantly reduced, shifting from the initial “Rebuilding Rome” to the concept of a “Greater Greece.”

Even the idea of a “Greater Greece” was quite substantial, covering an area roughly seven to eight times the current size, or perhaps even larger.

King George I proposed establishing a Greater Greece with Constantinople as the capital and Athens as the economic center, but even this plan was criticized by Greek patriots.

Looking at the map, this plan would cover about one-third of the Balkan Peninsula and a quarter of Turkey, including many Aegean islands and Cyprus.

This plan was not excessive. In the original timeline, Greece came close to achieving this goal. Unfortunately, they fell just short, and thus, failed.

Now it’s a tragedy—the path of expansion has been completely blocked by Austria, and whether they lower their goals or not, there is simply no hope of success.

The Greek radical groups are anti-Austrian because they can’t accept that their dream of becoming a great power has been shattered. However, in the face of harsh reality, they have too few supporters.

In this context, with Austrian support, securing the Greek throne shouldn’t be too difficult as long as the domestic situation is managed competently.

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In Warsaw, after receiving Austria’s diplomatic response, the Polish government didn’t even wait for Christmas.

They had no choice. Originally, they had issued a diplomatic note to Austria mainly to stir up a verbal dispute and use the people’s patriotic fervor to distract them.

They chose Austria because they had no other options. Criticizing the Russians would have been easier, but after doing it for so long, the public had grown numb to it.

Aside from a few radicals who dreamed of expanding their territory to Moscow, most Poles had lost interest in the lands of the Russian Empire. Now, they were focused on reclaiming their lost territories.

Prussia and Austria held these territories. Since the Kingdom of Prussia was Poland’s ally and the pro-Prussian faction was strong in the government, they had to team up with Prussia against Russia, leaving Austria as their only target.

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The Polish government didn’t expect Austria to respond so fiercely. The territorial dispute between Austria and Poland had been going on for many years, and the Austrian government had never taken extreme measures. This led many Poles to mistakenly believe that they could get away with more aggressive diplomatic language.

Unbeknownst to them, the Prussians were stirring things up behind the scenes regarding this strongly worded diplomatic note, leading to this “oversight” by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

After receiving Austria’s threat, Poland’s acting Prime Minister, Dąbrowski, immediately summoned the foreign ministry officials and gave them a severe scolding.

They were obviously courting death. It was no surprise that the Austrian government responded so strongly.

As an international revolutionary fighter, Jarosław Dąbrowski was no ordinary man. Besides leading the Polish uprising, in the original timeline, he was one of the leaders of the Paris Commune.

But in the face of reality, compromise was necessary. To maintain his hold on power, Dąbrowski transformed into a “royalist.”

The Polish throne remained vacant not only due to international intervention but also because the “royalist” faction, led by Dąbrowski, didn’t want a king to ascend the throne. This was a significant factor.

For them, the longer they could delay the situation, the better. If the Polish people became accustomed to not having a king, then Poland would no longer need one.

The key was not to cause any trouble. Otherwise, if the great powers intervened, the situation could change. In an era where monarchy was still dominant, rashly challenging it would be a path to destruction.

Foreign Minister Walery Wróblewski had a grim expression as he said, “Prime Minister, we’ve investigated the matter. It turns out that the documents were altered by a patriotic youth working in the foreign ministry, who committed suicide after the incident.

He left behind a suicide note explaining his actions. He was mainly dissatisfied with the government’s weak stance on the Austrian issue and took it upon himself to swap the documents before submitting the note to Austria.”

The truth of the matter was no longer important. Anyone with a bit of sense could tell something was wrong. It was plausible that a patriotic youth might have switched the documents, but the idea that he would commit suicide was highly dubious.

Even though Wróblewski knew something was amiss, he couldn’t pursue the matter further. Playing dumb was a politician’s instinct. Digging deeper could lead to consequences that the Polish government couldn’t afford.

Regardless of the reason, the Austrian government wouldn’t let the matter go easily. Since a formal diplomatic note had been sent, there would be repercussions.

Dąbrowski frowned and said, “I don’t need an explanation. The issue now is how to get the Austrians to back off.

The Austrian government has wanted to interfere in Poland’s internal affairs for a long time, and now you’ve handed them the perfect excuse. Tell me, how do we clean up this mess?”

The Polish government was in a tragic position, heavily influenced by the European powers, especially Prussia, leaving them with very limited autonomy.

Even social reforms couldn’t be promoted according to their own will. They couldn’t even fully carry out a bourgeois revolution, let alone a proletarian one.

Dąbrowski had always wanted to free Poland from the influence of other nations, but he couldn’t even take the first step. Prussia heavily influenced the Polish military, and the military’s desire for more power led to fierce clashes with the government.

The Polish military had always wanted to enthrone William I and obtain the same status as the Junker nobility in Prussia.

Without a king, the officers who had distinguished themselves in battle were unable to join the ranks of the nobility.

These individuals had become entrenched in their own interests and were strongly opposed to the policies of the Dąbrowski government in an effort to consolidate their positions.

If it weren’t for the support of Britain and France, the Dąbrowski administration might have already been overthrown. Prussia, not wanting to offend Britain and France, was now trying to use Austria as its tool.

From a strategic perspective, it’s easy to see the chain of cause and effect. However, Dąbrowski found himself with limited options.

He could either quickly appease Austria’s anger or gather his strength to fight Austria. There was no third option.

Foreign Minister Walery Wróblewski said, “We have already contacted Britain, France, and Prussia. They have indicated that they will be closely monitoring the situation.

Britain and France have suggested that we meet Austria’s demands, suppress the anti-Austrian movement within our country, and issue an apology to defuse the crisis.

The Prussian government has stated that they will not stand by if Austria invades Poland, but they haven’t given a clear answer on what action they would take.”

In theory, accepting Austria’s conditions would not be difficult. It would only be a loss of face without any real harm to the nation’s interests, and most of those in power understood what needed to be done.

However, that was only in theory. If the government were to suppress the anti-Austrian movement, it would lose its popular support and the day of its collapse would not be far off.

Prussia’s stance was even more of a mystery. While Prussia and Poland were allies against their common enemy, Russia, it was no secret that the Prussian government also harbored ambitions to annex Poland.

The Prussians wouldn’t just stand by if Austria invaded Poland, but that didn’t necessarily mean they would send troops to protect Poland. There’s even a chance they might join forces with Austria to carve up Poland.

When it comes to matters of national interest, it’s best not to test a country’s integrity, or the results might be quite shocking.

Finance Minister Paderewski stood up and said, “The situation isn’t that simple. Let’s not forget about the Russians. While the Austro-Russian alliance has fractured, it hasn’t completely dissolved.

If the Russians seize the opportunity to get involved, and Austria and Russia join forces, even with the support of Britain, France, and Prussia, the outcome might not be in our favor.”

Paderewski advocated for compromise, arguing that losing face wasn’t the worst thing that could happen. While public support is crucial for a government, it’s not always the most important factor as it depends on the circumstances.

Losing popular support now is undoubtedly serious, but there’s still a chance to regain it, which is preferable to having the Austrians march in.

Haven’t you seen that the military, which usually likes to interfere in politics, has remained silent this time, as if they’ve become invisible, leaving everything to the government to handle?

“Will the Austrians really take action? I’m not so sure.”

Dąbrowski smirked, “Defeating us would be easy, but would it serve Austria’s interests? If we’re overthrown, the next government will undoubtedly be pro-Prussian. British and French influence in Poland will diminish, and the likelihood of William I ascending the Polish throne will increase—a scenario the Austrian government surely doesn’t want to see.

The Polish government is broke, and Austria wouldn’t even recover the cost of military expenses. The Austro-Russian alliance hasn’t dissolved yet. Even if they managed to seize some Polish territory, wouldn’t they have to return it to Russia out of a sense of duty?

After all that effort, they’d be doing all the work for someone else. I don’t think the Austrian government would miss this point.

From the beginning, we haven’t caused any substantial harm to Austria’s interests. It’s only a matter of face. From a strategic perspective, it’s more likely that Austria is bluffing.

As the people’s government, we can’t suppress the patriotic movement. However, we can issue a formal apology to the Austrians, giving them a way to save face.

I doubt the Austrian government would escalate the situation over this. At most, we could reduce tariffs on trade between our two countries and concede some economic benefits.”

This is a big gamble, betting Poland’s future on whether Austria will take action. Paderewski hesitated to speak further. Everyone values their reputation, and the damage to public support from suppressing a patriotic movement would be severe.

The Polish government’s control over the military is weak, and in addition to British and French support, public backing is crucial. If they lose the people’s support, the chances of maintaining their hold on power would be slim.