Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 540: Operation Without Bottomline

After understanding the entire situation, Franz sat back and enjoyed the spectacle. Deep down, he was already silently mourning for the Bulgarian revolutionaries. They had launched their uprising at the wrong time, and it was a mistake.

Had they chosen a different moment, perhaps the Russian government would have compromised. For instance, if they had revolted a few years earlier during the Russo-Prussian War, they could have seized the opportunity and joined the victors, achieving independence long ago.

Unfortunately, at that time, the Russian Empire was too strong, and the domestic population was stable. No one believed they could overthrow Russian rule.

It was only after Poland’s successful independence that national independence movements in Russia were stimulated. Bulgarian nationalism had only begun to spread in the past few years, and the agricultural crisis had further amplified the tensions.

While the foundation for revolution was there, this still wasn’t the right time. Challenging the Russian Empire from a single, isolated region was far from a wise choice.

Even waiting for the Near East War to break out would have been better than this timing, at least giving them a potential ally.

The British, who were secretly supporting the Bulgarian revolution, never showed their hand, while the French and Austrian capitalists were purely driven by profit. Their goal was simply to ignite the flames of war, and once they had done so, their objectives were achieved.

Regardless of whether the justification for this uprising held water, plenty of fools believed it. Watching a group of speculators, convinced that grain prices would rise, frantically join the effort to drive prices up, Franz quietly muttered, “Those who bring disaster upon themselves cannot escape it!”

If they couldn’t find a way out in time, every single speculator who got involved would be trapped with no escape.

Having ensnared them, how could the financial groups possibly let them leave? Once on this pirate ship, these people would have no choice but to push forward, doing everything in their power to hype up the narrative of “rising grain prices” and expanding the impact of the Balkan crisis.

Recently, the so-called good news has been endless, such as floods in Argentina and locust plagues in India…

There were even pictures to back up these claims, but no one was pointing out that, even if these countries experienced total crop failure, it would hardly affect Europe.

Argentina, in this era, wasn’t a major grain-exporting nation. It neither exported grain to Europe nor imported grain from Europe. Even if some regions were hit by disasters, surplus harvests in other areas would prevent any real shortages.

India, even more so. What good is a grain shortage there? Can they even afford to buy it? With such a massive population, a few starving to death doesn’t matter, and there’s no point expecting the British to offer aid.

In short, whenever a disaster happens anywhere in the world, it will appear in European newspapers. Truly, it is now the age of “scholars who don’t leave home but know the world.” Suddenly, everyone realized how vast the world was and that so many other countries existed.

Globally, there was indeed a grain shortage, but this didn’t stop the agricultural crisis from happening. The people suffering from the shortage were the poor, who couldn’t afford grain anyway. Even if there was a surplus in the international market, it had nothing to do with them.

And this wasn’t the era of heartwarming stories. Many lacked even the basic means to survive. If anyone thought they had discovered a massive untapped market and foolishly jumped in to develop it, they’d quickly find themselves bankrupt, no matter how big their initial assets were.

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Some persisted for a few years in initial investment without profit to cultivate the market, while others stuck it out for decades. But Franz had never heard of anyone foolish enough to wait for a hundred years.

Capitalists weren’t stupid. If a venture was profitable, they would’ve already jumped on it. Take, for example, the feel-good story of selling shoes in Africa because people there didn’t wear them.

No one ever researched whether the local people could even afford shoes. And even if they could, it wouldn’t matter. Colonizers were used to taking by force.

While raising sheep for wool may yield better long-term returns than slaughtering them, if you’re starving now, what’s the point of thinking about the future?

The 19th century was the darkest and most brutal era, where everyone fought for survival. Only those who lived through it had a future—those with visions too far ahead ended up as martyrs.

After a barrage of alarming news, many concluded that there was indeed a global grain shortage, and several regions even experienced panic buying of food.

But this had little effect on Austria. While some worried that grain prices might rise, no one believed Austria would run out of food. After all, if the world’s largest agricultural exporter had a food shortage, what hope was there for anyone else?

Once domestic grain retail prices were stabilized, Franz pretended not to notice the fluctuations in the stock market and futures markets.

If you want to speculate, you must bear the corresponding consequences. In essence, these fields are nothing more than a gamble. Once you’ve become the sheep to be sheared, do you think you can run?

To minimize the number of people affected, by the end of 1873, Austria’s securities regulatory authorities raised the capital entry threshold, barring small transactions below 500 guilders.

The power of capital is enormous. In a market originally suffering from overproduction, capital manipulation was able to create an artificial shortage.

This was good news for grain-exporting countries, as there were now buyers for their surplus grain this year. When the international grain market collapses is no longer important.

In a way, the Russian government should be grateful to the hidden players behind the scenes who helped them through their financial crisis this year. Although grain export prices were not high, at least the grains were sold.

Future problems can just be dealt with in the future. Besides, Austria is working hard to reduce production, so maybe in a few years, the market will return to normal.

Additionally, war is a major consumer of grain, and with a heavy blow to the Ottoman Empire, it’s likely that for the next two or three years, they won’t need to worry about overproduction.

Without hesitation, the Russian army originally intended for the Ottoman front was now sent by the Russian government to the Bulgarian front.

The major Bulgarian uprising, after holding out for more than two months, was dealt a heavy blow, and the insurgents were forced to abandon the cities and retreat into the mountains to continue the fight.

The Russo-Austrian alliance was still in place, and although Franz wanted to drive the Russians out of the Balkans, he didn’t offer support to the Bulgarian rebels.

Of course, whether or not there was smuggling of arms was not his concern. After all, arms smugglers had no rights, and if the Russians were capable of catching them, they could deal with them themselves. The Austrian government wouldn’t intervene.

In the Vienna Palace, Foreign Minister Wessenberg reported, “Your Majesty, envoys from the Ottoman government have arrived. They wish to resolve the dispute between the two countries through negotiations.”

If you can’t win, negotiate. This has always been a custom on the European continent. Especially for the great powers, total annihilation of a nation is unrealistic. Otherwise, when Napoleon III annexed the Italian territories, it wouldn’t have caused such an uproar.

Does the Habsburg monarchy have anything to negotiate with the Ottoman Empire? From the perspective of familial hatred, naturally, there’s no need for negotiation, as both sides are eager to see the other destroyed.

But from the perspective of interests, it’s always worth negotiating to find out. Franz isn’t a pure opportunist, so he decisively concluded, “No negotiations!”

Strategically, Austria needed an enemy. Who else could fit the role better than the Ottoman Empire? The European continent was a tangled mess, and getting involved meant getting entangled.

Fighting the Ottoman Empire was much better. Attacking a notorious enemy allowed Austria to take the moral high ground in public opinion, without worrying about backlash.

The Ottoman Empire, in decline, would still be no match for Austria even if it miraculously completed its modernization. This was determined by the disparity in overall national strength, which couldn’t be remedied.

If Britain and France were willing to prop up the Ottoman Empire, Franz would welcome it. This would mean the conflict could be prolonged, allowing for more time to get tangled.

It would be best if European countries thought Austria was stuck in a quagmire of war and couldn’t extricate itself, so they could feel at ease to engage in their own conflicts. This would prevent them from constantly focusing on Vienna, and then Franz wouldn’t have to be so cautious with his maneuvers.

“Send someone to urge the Russians to speed up their war preparations. They must launch this war in March. If it really doesn’t work, just let them send soldiers. We can provide everything else.”

Franz had no intention of cutting back on the strategic materials he had promised. The main reason for pulling the Russians into the conflict was to share the international pressure and give Prussia an opportunity.

If Russia and Austria weren’t tied up, how could the Prussian government have the courage to lay their hands on Poland?

Of course, William I wouldn’t be as extreme as Napoleon III. Franz guessed he would most likely first claim the Polish throne.

There is a precedent for shared monarchies in Europe. For example, Sweden and Norway had a shared king, and such arrangements are generally within the realm of acceptance. By first controlling the Polish government and then slowly implementing annexation, the difficulty is significantly reduced.

Franz used a similar strategy to swallow up the Kingdom of Bavaria. Now, Bavaria retains only its name. In reality, it has already become a province of Austria.

Not only Bavaria but also several other states couldn’t escape. Whether they admit it or not, they are equivalent to highly autonomous regions. Their interests are deeply tied to Austria, and the Austrian government is like the central government of the Holy Roman Empire.

The Kingdom of Prussia also achieved this in the original timeline. However, due to religious and legal reasons, the Prussian government’s control over Southern Germany was insufficient, and Bavaria maintained its own system.

If conditions had allowed, Napoleon III probably wouldn’t have directly annexed Italy either but instead used the shared monarchy system. Unfortunately, that wouldn’t have worked in Italy.

Who knew what an Italian emperor was? It was a non-existent title, created because of practical needs. How could it be recognized?

Without a legal basis, the shared monarchy system was doomed to fail. It’s not hard to understand why Napoleon III had to push ahead despite the difficulties.

Foreign Minister Wessenberg said, “The Russians don’t have much of a problem. Even if they’re not fully prepared, the Russian government can still declare war first.

The only issue is that we need a reason to start the war. The Russians suggest using the Ottoman Empire’s support for the Bulgarian rebellion as a pretext or raising the banner of a holy war to drive out infidels.”

When he heard “holy war,” Franz felt uneasy. This was clearly a secular war, so why bring religion into it?

Although it could boost morale, it would be difficult to control the pace of the war. What if the troops on the front lines became overly motivated and pushed to completely destroy the Ottoman Empire in one go? How could they be stopped then?

They couldn’t rely on the French to form another “sacrilegious alliance” with the Ottoman Empire to save the ailing Ottoman Empire.

“No, we absolutely cannot engage in a religious war. The Russians can use whatever excuse they want, but for us, we’ll claim revenge as our reason.”

Looking back to the time when the Ottomans besieged Vienna, nearly toppling the Habsburg monarchy, how could such a deep-seated grudge not be avenged?

Wait, that doesn’t seem right. In the Battle of 1683, it was the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth who acted as their saviors. It wouldn’t be great to highlight that fact.

Austria and Poland still have unresolved territorial disputes, and their entangled grievances could make for a ten-part drama series. It seems too early to speak of an Austro-Polish friendship.

Realizing this, Franz decided to stop elaborating and let the government fill in the gaps. After all, the hatred between Austria and the Ottomans has lasted for centuries, and a simple glance through history books would provide plenty of excuses.

Especially in the newly revised Austrian history books, the hatred is as deep as the ocean. For example, the Balkan populations are portrayed as descendants of those who were captured by the Ottomans during their invasions of Austria.

The original inhabitants of the region were supposedly all wiped out by the brutal Ottomans long ago. The few who survived either became traitors by joining the Ottomans or hid in the mountains, like those in Montenegro.

Whether people believed this or not, the Austrian government certainly did. They had evidence—real events, real people. It’s just that the percentage was small, but if you traced the bloodlines, a 1% chance would always show up.

Actually, after so many years of migration, that percentage has greatly increased. In many places, it has exceeded 50%, making the story much more credible.

In the future, when genetic testing becomes possible, it will prove that all this is true—that the ancestors of the local population did indeed come from the Germanic region.

In this regard, the history books of the Principality of Montenegro could also serve as evidence. Franz had even provided hundreds of guilders in material assistance to ensure the Montenegrin government cooperated.

There would be more evidence in the future. In short, Austria and the Ottoman Empire had a blood feud. If they didn’t take revenge on the Ottoman Empire, they would be letting their ancestors down.