Holy Roman Empire

The sudden Russo-Polish conflict shattered all of Prime Minister Dąbrowski’s plans. If not handled properly, it could lead to an all-out war between Russia and Poland.

Under these circumstances, without the support of the Kingdom of Prussia, Poland wouldn’t even have the strength to fight. One could say that the Russian government did the Prussians a big favor, forcing the Polish government into a corner and making them consider compromise.

But is it really that simple? The Tsar isn’t a fool. Why would he help his enemies without sufficient benefits?

While the Polish government was still in a state of confusion, Franz in Austria had already pieced together the truth. It was nothing more than a secret agreement between Russia and Prussia to divide the Kingdom of Poland.

In the face of profit, there are no enemies. The Russian government wanted to reclaim lost territories, and the Prussians wanted to grow their power. Both had set their sights on Poland.

A few years ago, the two nations were at each other’s throats, and the scars of war hadn’t even healed yet. Now, they were allies once again.

To the average person, this might seem inconceivable, but reality can be absurd like that.

For the Kingdom of Prussia, swallowing Poland whole was certainly tempting. However, the size of the Kingdom of Poland was vast, almost 70–80% the size of Prussia itself. If they tried to take it all in one bite, they risked choking on it.

In this situation, opting for partition with another power, thus reducing operational difficulties and sharing the burden of international pressure, was the best option.

The Prussian government was forced into collaboration with the Russians. Among the nations bordering Poland, only Russia, Prussia, and Austria mattered. Austria was too strong, and attempting to negotiate with them was like asking a tiger for its skin, it was too dangerous. Prussia would rather cooperate with its enemy.

Franz even speculated boldly that Prussia might be playing both sides. Perhaps they had already sent someone to contact the Austrian Foreign Ministry, offering the territories Russia desired to Austria, hoping to stir up conflict between Russia and Austria.

After reading the intelligence reports, Franz set them aside, no longer interested. He had no desire or stakes in the Polish region, to begin with, so he naturally didn’t care about the secret machinations of Russia and Prussia.

Let them scheme as they like. As long as Austria remains steadfast, all their schemes will be powerless in the face of absolute strength.

The more thoroughly Russia and Prussia prepare, the worse the next war will be. If both governments are wise, the best thing they can do now is to pull others into the fray. Ideally dragging in the nations of Europe that are merely watching from the sidelines.

Otherwise, neither Russia nor Prussia will be the victors in the next war. If Britain, France, and Austria decide to intervene halfway through, all of their efforts could be in vain.

But no one here is a fool. The fact that Britain, France, and Austria are already allied speaks volumes. Neither Russia nor Prussia are masters of diplomacy, and breaking up this alliance to bring them over to their side would be a task far too difficult to accomplish.

Austria has no interest in expanding its power on the continent, the French are too busy to wage war, and the British love to stir the pot but will never want to get directly involved. It’s pointless to expect them to step in directly.

These three nations are not easy to pull into the fray, and the entry price alone is far beyond what Russia and Prussia can afford. In terms of manipulating the situation without committing anything, Britain, France, and Austria are far more skilled at playing that game.

In theory, there should be rivalry for world dominance between Britain, France, and Austria. Such great powers should be riddled with conflicts, yet these contradictions have not reached the point of erupting into action.

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For example, both France and Austria are interested in challenging Britain’s dominance at sea, but due to their lack of power, neither country has the strength to confront British naval supremacy.

Similarly, the rivalry between France and Austria for dominance over the European continent should seem like a life-or-death struggle. In reality, Austria has little interest in continental dominance and can’t be bothered to fight for it, while France is preoccupied with internal matters and has no time to pursue control over Europe.

In overseas colonial expansion, all three countries are benefiting. If they start fighting each other, the cost of maintaining their colonies will skyrocket. If they compromise instead, they can all save a significant amount of money.

As long as Britain, France, and Austria don’t start backstabbing each other, any other nation looking to exploit the situation will have to think carefully about whether they can handle the consequences of being exposed.

Even now, minor colonial conflicts between Britain, France, and Austria still occur, but they have become much more restrained compared to before their alliance. At least there haven’t been any more large-scale colonial expeditions of over a hundred people disappearing without a trace.

The negotiations between Britain, France, and Austria regarding the division of colonial territories have already begun. At the current pace, a result should be reached within 1-2 years, and by then, conflicts between these three countries over overseas colonial activities will further decrease.

The driving force behind all of this isn’t Franz or Napoleon III, but rather John Bull, the troublemaker.

Everyone is colonizing for profit, not for loss. The British have the most colonies and, consequently, the most conflicts with other nations overseas.

By the late 19th century, the costs of maintaining these colonial empires were skyrocketing. If they continued fighting, no one would be making any money.

For its own interests, Britain had to establish a system of rules to regulate the colonial activities of all nations, preventing everyone from constantly backstabbing each other and ensuring the opportunity to profit.

Of course, this only applied to territories that were already claimed by recognized powers. In the scramble for unclaimed lands, there was still no mercy. Nations would fight as ruthlessly as ever.

This international landscape is very different from the original historical timeline. Now, the main international conflict in Europe is the rivalry between Prussia and Russia.

In comparison, British-Austrian, British-French, and French-Austrian conflicts have all become secondary. The fact that Britain, France, and Austria could form an alliance proves that their shared interests outweigh their conflicts.

Britain wants balance on the European continent, not for it to be in constant chaos and war.

War brings uncertainty, and starting a war without guaranteed success is risky since no one can predict how things will turn out.

What if the situation got out of control and a behemoth emerged from the fighting? The lesson of Napoleon was not that long ago and that one almost succeeded.

Now France and Austria are mutually constraining each other, while Prussia and Russia are mutually hostile. The European continent is just in a delicate state of balance.

Any major upheaval in one country could trigger a chain reaction. The last Near East War taught the British that meddling in continental wars comes at a price.

From Britain’s perspective, it would be best if the European situation remained balanced. When conflicts arise, Britain can simply act as the arbiter.

...

On May 18, 1874, the Russian government issued a diplomatic note to the Kingdom of Poland, demanding that the Polish government hand over the “culprits of the border conflict” within 24 hours and cede Kyiv to the Russian Empire as compensation.

Such conditions were clearly unacceptable to the Polish government. Prime Minister Dąbrowski was furious but powerless.

The Russian Empire had a standing army of 876,000, while Poland, even at full strength, could only muster a standing army of 136,000. The disparity in strength between the two sides was insurmountable.

In Warsaw, Dąbrowski’s office consisted of only two desks, four chairs, and a filing cabinet. The Polish government was poor, and Prime Minister Dąbrowski led by example, cutting down on administrative costs as much as possible.

In this regard, Prime Minister Dąbrowski did an exemplary job. Unfortunately, a country cannot be governed by frugality alone.

Prime Minister Dąbrowski asked, “What do the great powers say? Will they intervene in the Russians’ actions?”

Unable to accept the Russian demands, Poland was on the brink of war, and Dąbrowski was left hoping for international intervention.

Foreign Minister Walery Wróblewski replied, “The British envoy has agreed to mediate the conflict. The French envoy hasn’t given a clear answer yet, probably waiting for a decision from the French government.

The Prussians have promised to support us, assuring that if war breaks out, they will send troops to aid us immediately.

Austria has not made any statement, but due to the Russo-Austrian alliance, they will at most remain neutral and certainly won’t support us.

The rest of the European nations are watching the situation. What actions they will take depends on how the situation develops.”

After hearing this outcome, Prime Minister Dąbrowski felt no relief whatsoever.

The reactions from the European powers left him deeply disheartened. Poland had served diligently as Europe’s gatekeeper against the Russian Empire, yet none of the three major powers—Britain, France, or Austria—had clearly expressed support for them.

While it seemed that the Kingdom of Prussia had offered its backing, Dąbrowski knew that such support would come at a price.

He was certain that if William I couldn’t also become King of Poland, Prussia would half-heartedly participate in the war.

Currently, the Russian government is not fully prepared for war. While beating up the Kingdom of Poland wasn’t a problem, completely eliminating Poland would force the Russian government to seriously reconsider if they had the financial resources to see it through.

Prussia had every reason to hold back. An ailing but still alive Poland was much easier for them to annex, minimizing the backlash.

Without hesitation, Prime Minister Dąbrowski made a decision, “Initiate a full national mobilization. We must be ready to fight to the death against the Russians.”

The major powers couldn’t be counted on for now. The French were preoccupied with their own issues, Austria was allied with the Russian Empire, and relying on the British was a dubious prospect.

Talk of mediation was easy, but in reality, it all depended on whether the Russians would even consider it. With the Russian government’s 24-hour ultimatum mostly passed, British diplomatic notes likely hadn’t even reached the Tsar’s hands before the Russian army could be marching.

Poland’s only hope was Prussia, and Dąbrowski was already prepared to make temporary compromises. When survival is on the line, many things can be negotiated.

In any case, Poland was still too large to be easily swallowed. Even with Prussia’s ambitions, it wouldn’t be able to annex Poland quickly.

For now, they had to hold off the first Russian offensive. If the Polish forces were defeated before Prussian reinforcements arrived, the situation would be dire.

They can’t really count on Prussia to help them recover lost territory and drive the Russians back to their homeland, can we?

Even though they won the last war, Prussia still lags behind Russia in terms of national strength. Without financial backers, Prussia wouldn’t stand a chance against the Russian Empire.

The Russian government might be low on funds, but the situation isn’t much better for the Prussian government. If, one day, you hear that the Prussian government has gone bankrupt, don’t be surprised. They’ve always been teetering on the brink of financial collapse.

Rather than saying Prussia defeated the Russians, it would be more accurate to say that the Russian government was crushed by the weight of the money thrown at Prussia by their backers.

All the major European countries chipped in, with Britain and France generously lending money. But such a fortunate situation doesn’t happen every day. Loans still have to be repaid, and for years now, both Prussia and Poland have been struggling under the burden of that debt.

A slimmed-down Russian Empire no longer instills fear in Europe, so naturally, the financial support has dried up.

In this context, Prime Minister Dąbrowski doesn’t believe that Prussia has the strength to crush the Russians. If they had that kind of power, the Prussian government would have annexed Poland long ago. They wouldn’t have waited until now.

The Polish government has never neglected its preparations for war, but based on previous estimates, they thought this war would come in another decade or so, meaning their preparations were far from adequate.

The Russo-Polish conflict erupted too suddenly. The Polish government had just received the news when the Russian government’s ultimatum arrived, leaving them with no time to prepare.

Wanting to complete war preparations within 24 hours was simply a fantasy. Unless it’s a tiny country like Monaco, where national mobilization can be completed in just a few hours, it’s impossible.

As Poland began to mobilize, the Russians didn’t sit idly by either. The Russian government, already prepared, had concentrated 20 infantry divisions and five cavalry divisions at the Russo-Polish border, with another 20 infantry divisions stationed along the Prussian border.

Clearly, the Russian government didn’t trust the Prussians, hence the heavy troop presence at the border.

Times have changed. The Russian government had stockpiled a supply of grain in advance, solving the food problem for the Russian army. The logistical pressure on the Russians has been greatly reduced.

While 20 infantry divisions might not be enough to take down the Kingdom of Prussia, they are more than sufficient to defend the border. Even if the Prussian government wanted to play tricks, they would first need to consider their own strength.

With a large army, the Russian government could act with impunity. Without much effort, they mobilized 500,000 troops. This already exceeds the combined standing armies of both Poland and Prussia.

The tragedy is that the Polish government had no prior awareness of this. Even now, Prime Minister Dąbrowski doesn’t know the full extent of the enemy forces they will face.

In this regard, the Polish government is truly incompetent. They exhibit high ambitions but low capabilities, completely neglecting the importance of intelligence work.