The Fox of France

"First and foremost, we must acknowledge that this time we have suffered a painful defeat. Our revolutionary forces have incurred massive losses. During the siege of Aslron, as well as the subsequent process of obstructing the British reinforcements, we have sacrificed over fourteen thousand men from the first and second divisions, along with local forces. In addition, nearly ten thousand wounded have to leave the revolutionary army due to their injuries. After paying such a huge price, we failed to achieve any of the operational objectives we set before the war. Therefore, now we must summarize what the fundamental reasons for this failure are.

Personally, I believe the following:

Firstly, a bit of past success made many comrades in our confederation, including myself, arrogant and complacent. Thus, we failed to approach problems and analyze them from a realistic standpoint. Instead, decisions were made hastily. Looking back, our initial operational deployment was incredibly rash.

We were blindly optimistic because of some past victories, believing that as long as we feigned an attack, we could definitely mobilize the enemy, who would then definitely come to reinforce without adequate preparation and fall into our ambush—as if the enemy was under our command, obliged to obey our orders. As for what to do in the event of an unexpected situation, we astonishingly did not have any contingency plans prepared in advance. Making hasty adjustments when the situation arose, it's no wonder we failed.

Was this mistake due to a chance occurrence? No, accidental errors do happen, such as tripping while walking, which could be considered accidental. But to make so many mistakes in matters concerning the fate of a nation, that cannot possibly be by chance. It's a problem with our own thoughts and our own style!

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We became arrogant, and with arrogance comes conceit, making it impossible to view ourselves objectively. We were like the frog in Aesop's Fables, thinking that puffing up our bellies would make us bigger than a bull. Arrogance inevitably leads to underestimating others, preventing us from judging others objectively. Thus, our predictions about the British were almost entirely incorrect. Arrogance also breeds laziness, resulting in a lack of initiative in thinking. Thus, we didn't even have contingency plans.

Therefore, this defeat was not accidental but due to problems in our thoughts and style. If we cannot adjust our attitude and change our style, such failures will not be the last. Hence, in the time to come, even for the rest of our lives, we must always be vigilant and continuously rectify our style. This is the guarantee of victory for the revolution.

Comrades, although we have suffered another setback, our confidence in the inevitable victory of the revolution should not waver. Think about our original situation, overall, isn't it much better now? And look at our enemies, isn't their decline in strength obvious compared to before? The path of the revolution is tortuous, but the future of the revolution is bright. We must be full of confidence in the victory of the revolution..." - Russell's Speech at the First Aslron Offensive Operational Summary Meeting

On the British side, of course, it was a time of joy. Although this victory did not completely annihilate the "Irish rebels'" main force, it was the greatest victory in the "rebellion suppression" operations so far. Naturally, British newspapers greatly propagated this victory, and the Duke of Norfolk even received the Knight Grand Cross medal for it. Everyone congratulated him and wished him quick success in quelling the rebels.

However, the Duke of Norfolk did not show much joy over this. In private, he told his friends that the situation in Ireland remained grim. He even hoped the British government would approve his retirement due to ill health and send someone to replace him—if not taking advantage of the victory to coax a fool eager to pluck peaches into being a scapegoat, it would be harder to find a substitute later.

But the British government refused his request without hesitation. Despite the newspapers blowing this victory out of proportion, those in the know were aware that the main force of the Irish rebels was still at large, and this peach was not easy to pick. So, celebration aside, medal awarding aside, the idea of finding someone to take the blame was laughable...

However, the British soon had no reason to be happy, as trouble brewed in North America.

Ever since the French began developing Louisiana, the American route to the west was almost entirely blocked by the French. Because the border between northern Louisiana and the United States was unclear, there had been quite a few frictions between the French and Americans in the border area over the years. Initially, it was the Americans fighting the "French overseas citizens," followed by the Americans fighting the Indians, then the "French overseas citizens" fighting the Americans, and then the Americans fighting the Indians again, the "French overseas citizens" fighting the Indians, and finally, the Indians supported by the French fighting the Indians

supported by the Americans.

Although there were many minor skirmishes, the relationship between the Americans and the French remained essentially peaceful. The Americans knew that with Louisiana in the way, the success rate of going west was very low. So, the Americans turned their gaze to their neighbor to the north—Canada.

In the original history, the Americans tried to take the Canadian region in 1812, taking advantage of Britain's preoccupation with France, declared war on Britain, and attempted to capture Canada. Of course, this strategic objective was not achieved, and the White House even got burned down. However, in the end, the Americans declared they had won the war. Strangely, the British also considered themselves the victors of the war. In this typical zero-sum game of war, a story emerged where both belligerents were winners.

In this timeline, with the American westward path blocked by the French, the Americans lacked the confidence to wage a major war against the French. But as Britain and France seemed poised to clash again, and with Ireland stirring within Britain, the Americans immediately thought: If not now, when to eliminate Canada? Were they waiting for the French to completely defeat the Brits, then everyone would share Canada?

So, the Americans found an excuse, claiming absurdly that rabbits were not wearing hats—no, it was that the British and the Indians colluded to attack Americans. And then they declared war on Britain.

To say that the British colluded with the Indians to attack Americans is not unjust to the British; they indeed did such things. However, they targeted not only Americans but also the "French overseas citizens." Similarly, the Americans colluded with the Indians to attack Canadians and "French overseas citizens." Then, the "French overseas citizens" also colluded with the Indians to attack Canadians and Americans.

When all parties were equally matched, these were minor issues, but it became different when the British were restrained by the French. Thus, the Americans used this as an excuse to declare war on Britain.