Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 535: Turmoil in the Balkans

When both parties are willing, it’s always easier to reach an agreement. Sure enough, the Russian government quickly convinced Austria, and both sides agreed to give the Ottoman Empire a good beating.

Now, only some details needed further discussion. For example: when to launch the attack, from where, and how to divide the spoils after the war...

Even though an initial agreement had been reached, Alexander II was not at ease. The current state of the Russian Empire wasn’t ideal, and in theory, it wasn’t the right time to start a war.

The Ottoman Empire wasn’t even the Tsar’s first choice of target. If he had his way, Alexander II would much rather attack the Kingdom of Prussia now.

Unfortunately, the Austrian government didn’t cooperate. No matter what conditions were offered— even promising to support Austria in unifying the German region—nothing could sway the Austrian government.

This wasn’t entirely unexpected for Alexander II. Between nations, such promises are notoriously unreliable, and the Austrian government naturally wouldn’t trust them easily.

If Austria truly unified the German region, it would likely lead to a falling-out between Russia and Austria. When it comes to interests, alliances are often not worth much.

With those options off the table, there were no good alternatives. The Far East was too far and held little value, offering no solution to the domestic agricultural crisis.

The Central Asian khanates seemed like decent targets, but launching a campaign in Central Asia would place the entire burden on the Russian government.

Meanwhile, the Russian government was still waiting for British loans to fund its military. Starting a war against Britain’s henchmen in Central Asia would be akin to inviting trouble.

In the end, the unlucky Ottoman Empire was the only target left. It was large and rich enough to be divided between the two nations. As for the international pressure, it could be left for the Austrian government to handle. Alexander II had come to realize that when it came to diplomacy, they were truly outmatched.

By joining forces with Austria, this time the campaign didn’t need to focus solely on the Caucasus. Any coastal area of the Ottoman Empire could become a battlefield.

Learning from past mistakes, the ever-adaptive Alexander II now placed great importance on logistics. He wasn’t willing to risk a military campaign without securing adequate supplies.

“Did the Austrian government agree to provide us with strategic supplies?”

The second reason for partnering with Austria was logistics. This campaign would rely heavily on maritime supplies, which reduced some of the logistical strain.

The critical issue wasn’t transportation but primarily about money. The Russian government’s finances were poor, and the funds that had been raised were already allocated for building railways. There simply wasn’t any money left for war.

Since they had no money of their own, they would need to turn to their allies. They didn’t need literal gold and silver. If the Austrian government would cover the strategic supplies, they would have nothing to fear.

Foreign Minister Chris Basham reported, “Your Majesty, the Austrians have made concessions. They’ve agreed to provide us with six months’ worth of operational supplies for 150,000 troops.

However, when it comes to dividing the spoils, we will suffer a significant loss. The Austrians have a huge appetite. They want the Middle East and half of the Anatolian Peninsula.”

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The Austrians were putting on a show to the fullest. From outward appearances, it seemed like the Austrian government was intent on completely destroying the Ottoman Empire and eliminating their age-old enemy. Naturally, they were going to compete for the spoils.

Alexander II shook his head and said, “These are minor issues. Most of the Middle East is desert and doesn’t hold much real value. We can’t even reach it. If they want it, let them have it.

This war is 30% military and 70% political. If we can’t prevent European countries from intervening, we won’t be able to swallow the Ottoman Empire at all. As long as we secure the Caucasus region and half of the Anatolian Peninsula, we won’t lose out.”

In this era, the general perception of the Middle East was that it was mostly desert. While it was large in size, it didn’t seem to hold much real value.

Since Alexander II didn’t realize what he was giving up, he didn’t feel like he was losing out. On the surface, Austria had more responsibilities to bear, so it made sense for them to take the largest share.

Chris Basham nodded in agreement. The Russian government had several goals for this war:

First, alleviate the domestic food crisis and prevent widespread agricultural bankruptcy;

Second, eliminate the Ottoman Empire, removing a future enemy in the next Russo-Prussian War;

Third, restore military morale through victory and overcome the shadow of the Russo-Prussian War;

Fourth, expand Russia’s influence and establish the monarch’s prestige...

To achieve the above goals, thorough preparations were naturally essential. The Russian government could no longer afford to lose, and Alexander II himself had even less room for failure.

Large-scale military preparations were impossible to hide. As the Russians began their actions, Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire also started to mobilize, and the smoke of war spread across Europe.

Although William I was eager to take advantage of the situation, until the war actually broke out, no one could be sure whether the Russians were simply pretending and might suddenly turn their attention toward them.

Prussia’s resources were not strong enough to withstand failure. Just one defeat could mean complete ruin. The Prussian government couldn’t afford to gamble and had to follow suit in preparing for war.

Interestingly, Austria, one of the main players, wasn’t making any significant moves. It wasn’t that Franz was arrogant. It was simply because he wasn’t planning to wipe out the Ottoman Empire in one stroke.

The Russians were eager to do the heavy lifting, and Franz had no reason to oppose that. After all, the strategic supplies the Austrian government was providing were limited. The Ottoman Empire couldn’t possibly crumble in under half a year when confronted by a Russian army of just hundreds of thousands, could they?

As for a decisive battle, it wasn’t that Franz looked down on the Ottoman Empire, but the Ottoman government of this era truly was weak.

In recent years, the Ottoman Empire had been anything but peaceful, as internal power struggles raged within the government. The reformist faction, through brutal force, had crippled the conservative faction in the government.

However, that wasn’t enough. The conservative forces still held significant power among the populace, often cloaked in religious garb, further complicating matters.

While the reforms did bring some positive changes, they hadn’t solved the deep-seated ethnic tensions. The Greeks, Armenians, Jews, and Slavs within the Ottoman Empire all sought independence.

While external forces undoubtedly played a role in spreading nationalism, the main cause of unrest lay in the internal inequalities among ethnic groups, with religion being the primary issue.

With an enemy full of vulnerabilities, Franz naturally had little to worry about. After all, he had already decided to slowly nibble away at the Middle East, engaging in a prolonged war of attrition, or what could be considered live military training.

By proceeding steadily and methodically, even if Britain and France provided aid to the Ottoman Empire, it wouldn’t make much difference unless they were willing to exhaust themselves. Otherwise, the Ottoman government was bound to lose.

With 1873 more than halfway through, launching a war within the year was no longer possible. Despite Alexander II improving the efficiency of the Russian government, they still couldn’t manage to organize a military expedition of hundreds of thousands of troops within just a few months.

Since Alexander II wanted a decisive and glorious victory in this war, the cannon fodders needed proper training, and that would take time.

Franz had no objections to delaying things a bit longer. Strategic planning required time, and guiding all parties to make the decisions he desired was by no means a simple task.

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In case something went wrong along the way, he would still be responsible for cleaning up the mess, ensuring that such problems wouldn’t affect the larger picture.

To ensure everything went smoothly, Franz was now quite concerned about Napoleon III’s health. According to reports, after falling ill in January of this year, Napoleon III’s condition had greatly deteriorated.

Since June, Napoleon III had not appeared in any public events, and most of them had been attended by Crown Prince Eugène instead.

With the shrewd adversary still alive, they needed to stay alert. If they waited until Napoleon III was completely incapacitated to act, the odds would be even more in their favor.

Crown Prince Eugène is still young, and if these were peaceful times, that wouldn’t be an issue. He could gradually build up his prestige and slowly consolidate power. Unfortunately, he’s come of age in an era of great turmoil.

In recent years, France has started to lie low, as Napoleon III has been trying to secure a relaxed international environment for his son so that when he dies, France’s enemies don’t immediately come knocking.

As part of their inducement plan, the Austrian government had a top-secret strategy aimed at the French. The success rate of this plan is extremely low, and it would require the French to cooperate voluntarily for it to work.

Simply put, the plan was to provoke the French into occupying Belgium, the Rhineland, or the German Federal Empire—any of these would work, though it would be ideal if the young emperor led the troops himself.

Defeating the French on their home turf is too difficult, but if they could lure the bulk of the French forces out, the chances of victory would increase significantly.

The successful annexation of Italy had already inflated the egos of many in France, and if Napoleon III hadn’t restrained them, they would have already moved to annex the territories west of the Rhineland.

Franz knows all too well that France’s annexation of Italy had already crossed the line for most European powers. The only reason an anti-French alliance hasn’t formed yet is due to a lack of leadership and the inability of Prussia and Russia to cooperate due to their rivalry.

If France continues its expansion, the European powers won’t have any choice but to act. Don’t underestimate the power of these smaller countries—even though they’re limited in strength, they’re more than enough to act as the final straw that breaks the camel’s back.

As for whether crippling France would result in an irreparable enmity, Franz isn’t worried in the slightest. When you already owe a lot, a bit more debt won’t weigh you down. If you look at history, you’ll find that Austria and France have a long and complicated history of unresolved issues.

Besides, the two countries don’t share a border—what, are the French going to march all the way over?

In the original timeline, the Franco-German conflict wasn’t just about war but primarily about Alsace and Lorraine. Neither side could make concessions on this matter.

Alsace and Lorraine were former territories of the Holy Roman Empire, part of the German region, so there was no way the Germans would give them up. On the other hand, French nationalism was at an all-time high, and with John Bull fanning the flames, the French government couldn’t afford to compromise either.

This issue doesn’t trouble Austria much. At worst, they could hand the territories over to the German Federal Empire while Austria could settle for some colonies instead.

If the French were to send troops for revenge, then the German Federal Empire would likely cry and beg to rejoin the Holy Roman Empire, and by that point, no one would be able to stop them.

The precondition is that Napoleon III had to pass away first, as the young emperor wouldn’t be able to suppress the pro-war faction in France. Otherwise, if the French stayed home and kept a low profile, Franz wouldn’t dare to make a move on them.

This ties into the issue of force projection. If Austrian troops could exert their full strength on home soil, they would only be able to exert about 50-60% of that strength on French soil.

It’s not that the army’s combat effectiveness would decrease. The main problem would be logistics. In the original timeline, the Kingdom of Prussia gambled and won, but that was purely by God’s grace. Napoleon III personally led his forces and essentially delivered himself into their hands.

With the emperor captured, a revolution broke out in France, and the government was overthrown, so there was no resistance left.

Otherwise, if the war had dragged on for a few more months and the French had managed to mobilize their forces, the outcome would have been entirely different.

Head of Intelligence Tyron said, “Your Majesty, there’s been trouble in Greece. Last night, a revolution broke out in Athens. The rebels defeated the government forces and captured Prince Ludwig, who hadn’t yet ascended to the throne.”

Prince Ludwig, in the original timeline, was the same Ludwig III who became King of Bavaria. Right now, Ludwig II hasn’t yet reached the time of his illness, and his father, Prince Luitpold, hasn’t had a chance to act as regent.

In the Lombardy royal succession, Prince Ludwig was already far down the line, with virtually no chance of inheriting the throne.

In theory, he wasn’t even in line for the Greek throne, but the few people ahead of him didn’t want to take the position, so it fell to him.

Encountering this kind of bad luck, Franz could only conclude that Ludwig must be misfortune incarnate. Sending him to Greece to be king turned out to be the right move.

In the original timeline, Ludwig was also the first monarch to abdicate during the World War. This time, it’s even worse—he didn’t even get to be king before ending up as a prisoner.

“Notify the General Staff by phone to prepare for armed intervention in Greece, and have the cabinet ministers on duty come over for a meeting.”

To Franz, this was just a minor issue and didn’t require all the cabinet ministers to come together for discussion. He wasn’t worried about Ludwig’s safety at all.

Right now, Ludwig was merely one of the Greek royal successors. More importantly, he was a prince of the Kingdom of Lombardy within the new Holy Roman Empire. If the Greeks dared to harm him, that would provide the perfect excuse for war.

Austria hadn’t annexed Greece because they were trying to maintain appearances. On the European continent, annexing a sovereign state without cause would have severe consequences.

But if the Greeks were the ones to stir up trouble, the situation would be different. Even if Austria couldn’t annex Greece, punishing them with military force would be very easy.

This logic was obvious to many. So, the people most concerned about Prince Ludwig’s safety should actually be the rebels.

If something unfortunate happened to him, they’d be in for some serious trouble. Even just for the sake of appearances, Austria would have to send troops to avenge Ludwig.