Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 536: Suspects Everywhere

Franz’s prediction was spot on. After the Greeks captured Ludwig, their would-be king, they were unsure what to do next.

The rebel forces soon split into two factions. One group advocated for establishing a republic, aiming to break free from Austrian control over Greece.

The other faction wanted to crown Ludwig, arguing that he was the legitimate heir to the throne.

Before Austria could even intervene, the republicans and royalists were on the verge of clashing. The republicans mainly consisted of capitalists and a group of idealistic youths, while the royalists were made up of the nobility.

As for the numerous farmers and workers, they were mere spectators. This coup had nothing to do with them, so they didn’t need to take sides.

Before the coup, both factions had cooperated to oust Otto I’s Bavarian cabinet and seize control of the government.

Now that their goal had been achieved, the two sides turned on each other for power. Currently, the nobility, controlling most of the military, had the upper hand. Ludwig might even ascend to the throne without Austrian military intervention.

Looking at the intelligence reports in hand, Franz wasn’t sure how to react. A revolution was supposed to be happening, but it seemed to have ended before it even began.

With a little deduction, Franz could tell that someone was pulling strings behind the scenes. Greece, being a tiny country, was not even half the size of modern Greece.

With its small territory, scarce resources, and a population of no more than a million, how could the capitalists hope to grow and thrive?

Without sufficient power, having a strategic location wasn’t necessarily a good thing. Since gaining independence, Greece has been heavily influenced by the great powers.

The government’s heavy debts meant that Greece had been perpetually running a deficit, forcing it to ramp up its exploitation of the people.

The domestic market in Greece had long become a dumping ground for foreign goods, with the national capitalists constantly teetering on the edge of survival. In fact, all the capitalists combined likely didn’t have the wealth of a single major capitalist.

The Greek nobility’s economic strength wasn’t impressive either, but at least they still had control of the military. Now, even the capitalists had formed their own army, though they were still on the losing side. This was already beyond their capabilities.

Franz didn’t believe that the capitalists would be willing to sacrifice everything for their country. Even if there were a few individuals with high moral standards, the entire group couldn’t possibly be so selfless.

Politics is complicated, and what appears on the surface isn’t always the truth. Just as Austria could create smokescreens to deceive others, so too could other nations.

The sudden unrest in Greece—who was behind it? Without solid intelligence, Franz couldn’t make a definitive judgment.

One problem hadn’t been resolved before another arose.

Before the Greek issue could be settled, Bulgaria also descended into chaos. On September 11, 1873, the Bulgarian Revolutionary Alliance launched an anti-Russian uprising in Sofia.

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Bulgaria is a tragic country. After finally driving out the Ottoman Empire, they found themselves under the rule of the Russian Empire.

Thanks to the efforts of the Russian government’s bureaucrats, the once pro-Russian faction had largely become anti-Russian.

Watching Poland and the three Central Asian nations gain independence, it was impossible for the Bulgarians not to feel some desire for the same. However, Russia’s strong military presence in Constantinople deterred many from pursuing independence.

Regardless, Russian rule was still better than that of the Ottoman Empire, as the exploitation wasn’t as severe, and both sides shared similar cultural and religious beliefs.

If the Russian government had genuinely sought to promote ethnic integration, it could have been accomplished within a generation. However, the Russian government had no such intentions, which is why the Russian Empire remained so fragmented with diverse ethnic groups.

No one can be lucky forever, and no flower blooms for a hundred days.

The once mighty Russian Empire eventually began to decline. Since Russia’s defeat in the Russo-Prussian War, the idea of national independence had taken root in Bulgaria.

An agricultural crisis further fueled this sentiment. Bulgaria’s industrialization had only just begun, and its economy relied heavily on agriculture. Due to the collapse of international grain prices, Bulgarian farmers had suffered great losses the previous year.

As the fall harvest approached, the lack of buyers for grain worsened the anxiety of the populace.

There were even rumors circulating that the Russian government had banned grain purchases in Bulgaria to protect domestic exports.

Despite the obvious falsity of this claim, many people believed it. Ordinary citizens didn’t have much knowledge of such matters. All they knew was that no one had come to buy grain this year.

It wasn’t just Bulgaria—across the entire European continent, grain merchants were slowing down their purchases. It was another year of abundance, and no one knew how much prices would drop. What if they bought too early and lost money?

It’s worth noting that last year’s price fluctuations caused many people to lose a lot of money. Before purchasing grain, the losses could still be passed onto the farmers. But once the grain was in their hands, the buyers had to bear the losses themselves.

To protect their own interests, the capitalists chose to wait and see. They would only start buying from the farmers once the market had stabilized.

There was no rush—their reserves were still full, and it would take a while to deplete them. There was no fear that others would snatch up the grain.

Over the past few years, Russia hadn’t been idle either. With the oppressive restrictions lifted, Bulgaria’s education sector experienced rapid growth.

The new intellectuals were the first to be influenced by nationalism. They quickly forgot Russia’s role in driving out the Ottomans, remembering only their subjugation under the Russians.

Of course, the Russian government would never admit to enslaving Bulgaria. After all, Alexander II’s reforms treated everyone equally, and many Bulgarian farmers were beneficiaries. But before they could fully enjoy these benefits, the agricultural crisis had already hit them.

In July 1869, the Bulgarian Revolutionary Alliance was secretly established in Greece. Almost every Bulgarian revolutionary group joined the alliance, united in their goal to drive out the Russians.

Few would have guessed that the real catalyst for the formation of the alliance was Russia’s land reforms.

The revolutionaries feared that the Russian government was winning over the farmers, which would spell the end of their movement. As a result, both the conservatives and the revolutionaries resisted Russia’s reforms in Bulgaria.

During this period, the two sides joined forces, and the revolutionary movement began to grow stronger.

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After reviewing the basic information on Bulgaria, Franz fell into deep thought. The timing of this uprising seemed too coincidental. Just as he and the Russians had decided to stir up trouble together, revolutions erupted almost simultaneously in both Greece and Bulgaria.

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Franz couldn’t believe it was all just a coincidence without any connection. He was more inclined to think that it was premeditated—that someone was targeting both Austria and Russia or at least trying to delay their plans.

The Greek revolution could be resolved easily. Even by military force if necessary, it was at most a matter of 1-2 divisions, which was just a small problem for Austria.

The real problem was international pressure. Austria couldn’t intervene in Greece’s internal affairs without a legitimate reason, as this would affect its international image.

Being a whore but still wanting to be a saint wasn’t just a joke, it was a necessity. Every country was concerned about its reputation, it just depended on how many resources they were willing to invest in that image.

When the stakes weren’t high, nations preferred to maintain a good international standing. Even Britain and France were no exception. In their overseas expansions, they often sought a justification rather than acting recklessly.

Such minor issues didn’t trouble Franz. He could simply find a proxy. For instance, the current Greek royalists were a suitable partner.

As long as they crowned Ludwig and ensured Austria’s interests were protected, Franz was fine with them running Greece.

Bulgaria, on the other hand, posed a more significant challenge. During the Near East War, Bulgarian guerrilla fighters had proven to be formidable. While that force had aged, the soldiers were still alive. They might not be fit for front-line combat, but they could still pass on their experience and command.

Franz seriously doubted whether the Russians would be able to quell this rebellion. It wasn’t a matter of the Russians lacking military strength. It was more about whether the Russian government had the funds to do so.

“Have we identified the mastermind behind this?”

Tyron, the head of intelligence, replied, “Our preliminary assessment points to the Ottoman Empire. Whether it’s the Greek coup or the Bulgarian uprising, the weapons were sponsored by Ottoman merchants.”

Franz wasn’t surprised that the Ottoman Empire would strike back. After all, with war knocking at their door, how could they not retaliate?

Who knows what the truth really is? After all, there were still some Greeks and Bulgarians in the Ottoman Empire, and these so-called “Ottoman merchants” were publicly known as Greek or Bulgarian patriots.

Even if the information were leaked, as long as the Ottoman government didn’t admit it or insisted that these people weren’t Ottomans, Austria would have a hard time using this as a pretext.

National identity was easy to manipulate in this era. Which international merchant didn’t have multiple nationalities? People used whatever nationality suited them at the time, and without the internet, even though multiple nationalities weren’t officially recognized, it was hard to verify.

If someone was stirring up trouble, they’d surely have covered their tracks. A deeper investigation might even reveal that some of these people held Austrian citizenship.

Franz suspected everyone could be the mastermind. On the surface, the Ottomans seemed the most likely, while the Russians seemed least involved, and the chances of Britain, France, and Austria being involved were about the same.

After a moment’s hesitation, Franz said, “Never mind, just keep watching. If the mastermind continues their actions, they’ll eventually slip up. If they stop now, the current outcome isn’t that worse.”

There was no clear path forward. The Greeks and Bulgarians were clueless, and they had carried out these actions without even knowing who was backing them.

How could one trace this? Just because these actions took place doesn’t mean it was a government conspiracy. Bureaucrats, capitalists, or nobles could just as easily be the culprits.

In terms of motives, there were too many suspects.

For example, the Ottoman government might have stirred things up to buy time for military preparations and divert the attention of Russia and Austria.

Or perhaps Britain and France wanted to give the Ottomans a helping hand.

It could even be Austria, aiming to weaken the Russians and secure an advantage in the distribution of spoils. Franz ruled this one out, as he could vouch for the fact that they weren’t involved.

In terms of vested interests, it’s clear that domestic arms dealers, agricultural capitalists, and major nobles are all suspects.

A shipment of arms might be difficult for those without connections, but for those with the right networks, it’s merely a matter of tens of thousands of guilders.

Regardless of how high international arms prices might be, the reality is that ordinary weapons and ammunition aren’t worth much. You could buy a second-hand rifle for three or four guilders, and wholesale prices could be even cheaper.

In this chaotic situation, arms dealers, agricultural capitalists, and high-ranking landowning nobles, who produce grain, are all beneficiaries. At the very least, grain prices for this year seem to have stabilized.

It’s not because the war consumed that much grain, nor because Bulgaria and Greece are major grain exporters, but because the situation has restored confidence in the market.

The international grain price collapse was mainly due to a loss of market confidence. If not for that, capitalists would have continued to back the market, maintaining stable grain prices through manipulation.

What did it matter if there was overcapacity? As long as they controlled the trading market, they could still send signals of short supply to the outside world.

As long as there was a reasonable excuse to make everyone believe that there would be a grain shortage in the market this year, they could lure enough speculators to artificially drive up grain prices.

Just look at the reports in the newspapers. Since the Austrian government’s call for reduced production, the media has been singing praises, as if the agricultural crisis has already passed.

Almost all European newspapers are running stories about grain reduction. So-called experts are exaggerating the impact of the “Land Fallow Act,” with some even brazenly declaring that European grain production would decrease by 20% in 1873.

It’s all just a trick by interest groups, though no one knows how many people they’ve managed to deceive. They can’t fool the smart ones, and if anyone really wanted to know the truth, they’d just need to visit the countryside to see for themselves.

Speculators who don’t bother with market research are bound to lose. Whether they lose sooner or later makes no real difference.

After the news of the Greek coup and the Bulgarian revolution spread, on September 13, 1873, grain prices on the London futures market rose by 5% that day.